Alternative futures are not statements of certainty.

Adopted analytical lenses, estimate sections and alternative futures work.

How it works

Analysts select an adopted lens or method, retain diverse evidence and assumptions against a stated horizon, and run scenario and unintended-effect sessions. Outputs feed intelligence-estimate sections in products and link back to indicators and collection gaps.

Boundaries

Scenarios are explicitly labelled as exploratory. Unsupported claims against a mandatory profile must be resolved before the lens is adopted for released work.